Winter 2018-19

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darrog
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Winter 2018-19

Post by darrog » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:49 pm

I was just wondering if anyone has given any thought to what weather this coming winter may bring.
This is especially so following last weeks press release from the MetO that this current warm weather will last into October.
Will this cause a particularly strong NAO in which case we would expect stormy conditions or after the warmth will we get the cold?

I’m sure that the MetO will be giving the subject some thought, but they won’t press release anything for a few months yet.

Anyway, just wondering
Darren Rogers - he who submits the most interesting posts, AKA Mr Data
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darrog
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Re: Winter 2018-19

Post by darrog » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:57 pm

Actually the first forecasts have been published elsewhere and it doesn’t look good.
There is a lot more to it, up here is a segment from one

This reversal of the tripole during May 2018 means that the GWV Winter 2018/19 NAO forecast can only be for a positive NAO (as the SST pattern is clearly the reverse of the pattern that we'd use to forecast a negative NAO Winter) - And due to the intensity of the SST's we would probably have to forecast either a positive or even very/strong positive NAO for Winter 18/19.

A positive or strong positive NAO would mean we'd likely see a strong Azores High combined with an intense polar vortex around Greenland and Iceland. The resultant pressure gradient would intensify the westerly winds and jet stream making for a strongly zonal Winter for the UK and Europe. This would be a mild or very mild Winter signal - Although exceptions can occur and cold European Winters have been achieved with a positive NAO.
Darren Rogers - he who submits the most interesting posts, AKA Mr Data
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Paul C
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Re: Winter 2018-19

Post by Paul C » Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:23 pm

I have ready some posts about this, way to early for me to tell.

Let hope either way its "interesting" good mix. But I dont want days of mild gunk thats for sure

Wonder what Winter 76/77 was like after the summer of 1976

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wmb
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Re: Winter 2018-19

Post by wmb » Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:38 pm

I believe January 1977 was the month with a storm that blew the silo off the local farm....

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