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 Andy's Winter Forecast 
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 Post subject: Andy's Winter Forecast
PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:59 pm 
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Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:43 pm
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Location: Plumpton, Penrith
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I thought I would kick this section off with my Winter Forecast.

Opinion is generally split on the prospects for this Winter with the MetO and ECM going for a mild winter and NOAA a cold one in Western Europe.

I am as confident as I can be that this coming winter will be cold for the following reasons.

1. Solar Activity remains very low and this often allows northern blocking and cold weather in Europe, IMO this was the main cause of last winters colder weather.

2. The last 12 months have seen UK temperatures near the long term average so you havent got the 'store' of heat around the UK so typical of the early 2000's.

3. Any ElNino is likely to be modest.

4. Cold winters usually come in clusters ie: 1977-1977 and 1985-1987 so I would be surprised if 2009 stands alone.

5. Its well known that warm/dry Octobers often preceed cold winters and October 2009 was typical.

O.K. its not very scientific but IMO we have a 60% chance of a cold winter in 2010 and a reasonanly chance it will be colder than last year.

Andy


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 Post subject: Re: Andy's Winter Forecast
PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 7:47 pm 
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Location: Brampton
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Lets hope so Andy. Plenty of time yet !

If it does snow I would just like it to last, we always get some every year, but after a couple of days or less its normally melted away. It would be great if we can get a spell of snow, freeze and then another spell of snow, something that just never seems to happen.

Fingers crossed as usual :D

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http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk
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 Post subject: Re: Andy's Winter Forecast
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 2:20 pm 
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:23 pm
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Location: Maulds Meaburn, Cumbria
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I will add a prediction later, but in the meantime I find that this one always prevails:

When it does snow and ices over and then we have some fantastic sunshine + clear blue skies making for absolutely brilliant conditions to be out on the hill, ice axe in hand, crampons biting into neve - I'll be stuck at work.

darren

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 Post subject: Re: Andy's Winter Forecast
PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:29 pm 
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Location: Maulds Meaburn, Cumbria
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The prediction - in short, it will be within +/- 0.2 c compared to winter 08/09.
PPT will be similar to that of 08/09 (maybe within 10%).

Taking away the Buchan cold snap of mid Feb' (possibly my favourite time of year and for me a cast iron certainty of good weather - i've enjoyed good weather when climbing in Scotland at this time of year - cold, crisp, sun + blue skies) - I would predict more frequent cold snaps, but only the same No. of cold spells (2/3) as last year.
(my reason for seeking an exact clarification of these terms).
And playing the game of averages - one good proper 'snow event' - simply because it's overdue.


Boring? possibly. Safe? possibly.
I know the Met' O' predicted a milder and wetter winter than last, but I don't go with that. I go with the successive cold winter trends and the October trend, don't know enough about the solar activity bit to comment, but now throw in Novembers weather and a quieter time can not be far away - although the North atlantic Oscillation would certainly seem in active/positive state and this would back up the MetO' prediction.
1-5th December is a Buchan warm spell, but will it be wrong this year? if not, a warm start to winter and our predictions start badly.

My figures for Winter 08/09

PPT - 346.8 mm
Mean temp' - 3.53c
Meam Max' - 5.9c
Mean Min' - 1.135c
Days laying snow = 16

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Darren Rogers - he who submits the most interesting posts, AKA Mr Data
Maulds Meaburn


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 Post subject: Re: Andy's Winter Forecast
PostPosted: Sat Dec 19, 2009 10:58 pm 
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Location: Maulds Meaburn, Cumbria
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My Mean temp' for Dec' is now down to 3.3c and will only drop further over the next few days - I need it to warm back up to be within my +/- 0.2c prediction.

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Maulds Meaburn


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 Post subject: Re: Andy's Winter Forecast
PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2010 9:46 am 
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Andy - your forecast looks good so far, especially when I look outside at all that snow falling

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http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk
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 Post subject: Re: Andy's Winter Forecast
PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 8:36 pm 
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:23 pm
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Location: Maulds Meaburn, Cumbria
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Weather Station: Davis VPro2
May have to do a Met'O and be imaginative with my figures so that my prediction isn't too far out (like it is now).
Although, I would suggest that at present I'm only really out on the temp' range!?

What concerns me (and no-one as ever picked up on Buchan) is that if we do get the Buchan Feb' cold spell, I'll be even more way out.
That +/- 0.2c range of 2008/9 is looking optimistic. The ppt isn't looking too bad at present though.

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Darren Rogers - he who submits the most interesting posts, AKA Mr Data
Maulds Meaburn


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 Post subject: Re: Andy's Winter Forecast
PostPosted: Mon Mar 15, 2010 4:46 pm 
Professor
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Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:52 pm
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Location: Brampton
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Just going back to Andys original forecast - Not bad indeed, well done.

Thinking of closing the Winter Discussion Thread and opening a spring one. I will see if I can transfer to some kind of archive ?

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Paul C
Brampton. 117m ASL.
http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk
Imagehttps://twitter.com/#!/pacrabtree


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