Winter forecast 2010/11

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Carl M
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Winter forecast 2010/11

Post by Carl M » Wed Oct 20, 2010 8:27 pm

Just seen Netweather's winter forecast: ... cast;sess=

They seem confident!

Very dry - HP dominated winter with near or just below average temps. :cry:
Drumburgh 7m AMSL (Solway Estuary)

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Paul C
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Re: Winter forecast 2010/11

Post by Paul C » Fri Oct 22, 2010 8:48 pm

Depends where the HP is !!

Joe Bastardi says


In 2003, the fierce heat wave centered in France was replaced by a chilly October, and when winter came, much of Europe was warmer than normal. However., the area that was near normal to a bit below was close to where that heat wave was then eastward through southern and southeastern Europe.

This year's August heat wave, like 2003, coming off an El Nino winter the year before, was over Russia and into central Europe. October has been cold in much of this area, and guess what, the winter will be most fierce from Euro-Russia into the Alps. Russian temps as much as 3C below normal for the winter are possible, 1-2 C below normal westward into the Alps. THIS INCLUDES THE BALKANS INTO NORTHWESTERN TURKEY, SORRY TO MY FAN CLUB THERE (I love all of you!!) But I should have been better in my description. I like above-normal snow in much of this area. Most of northwestern Europe will be near to a little below normal (up to 1C below normal) while northern and central Scandinavia, Scotland and Ireland are near or a bit above normal.

Snowfall will be above normal across much of Europe with heaviest in the Alps into Russia, perhaps a bit below normal in northern areas.

To sum up, a severe winter looks to be on table from the Alps into Russia, but winter in Great Britain and Ireland will not be as severe as last year.

Globally. Opposite of last year, the globe will be cooling considerably and temps by spring should be running near or below normal. This trend will probably make 2011 the coolest year since the late 1990s. Arctic sea ice will continue to recover from the 2007 lows, with the summer ice melt season next year probably returning ice to pre-2006 levels.

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Re: Winter forecast 2010/11

Post by wmb » Sat Oct 23, 2010 11:47 am

2006 type winter?

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Re: Winter forecast 2010/11

Post by darrog » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:17 pm

We still have to get past Autumn yet - and don't forget November of last year.

I will take a dry and slightly cooler than average winter though.
Darren Rogers - he who submits the most interesting posts, AKA Mr Data
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