SUMMER REPORT

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darrog
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SUMMER REPORT

Post by darrog » Tue Sep 18, 2012 5:53 am

Below is what I have knocked up for the C+W Herald - will they use it?

The Weather of Summer 2012
The summer of 2012 has received a bad press both locally and nationally, but just how bad was it really?
The meteorological summer consists of June, July and August and locally, using the Met’ office figures for their site at Newton Rigg for the period 1981-2010, we would expect an average summer temperature of 14.2c, rainfall of 198.9 mm and a total of 468 hours of sunshine.
Taking temperature first, summer saw both June and July colder than average, with August virtually average and hence here at Maulds Meaburn summer averaged a cool 13.4c, which is actually 0.2c warmer than summer of 2011!
Newton Rigg averaged 13.5c, which in a series going back to 1959 only has 14 colder, with 2 of the same mean temperature, (1962 being the coldest at 12.6c) and is 0.7c below the long term mean.
Summer mean temperatures from other local sites includes: Keswick 14.3c, Shap 12.6c, Warcop 13.2c and Blencathra 13.2c.
This summer at Maulds Meaburn saw 20c attained on only 16 days (eleven of which were in August) and none went on to reach 25c and indeed this year’s highest temperature (26.9c on 23rd May) has fallen outside of the summer months. Newton Rigg recorded 26.1c on the 24th.
But the real story is that of rainfall and Newton Rigg has recorded its third wettest ever summer with 354.2 mm of rain, some 178% of average.
But a real curiosity is that now the three wettest summers have occurred within the last 9 years.
Nationally, in a series commencing 1910 (although the summers of 1763, 1829, 1860 and 1879 were wetter, but rainfall recording had yet to begin at Newton Rigg), it has been the second wettest summer to that of 1912.
But 1912 with 347.5 mm of rain would only be Newton Rigg’s 4th wettest summer – the wettest being 2004 with 369.0 mm, followed by 2007 with 361.0 mm, then 2012 and 1912.
Rainfall recording at Maulds Meaburn commenced in 2007 and that summer saw 355.5 mm.
At least Newton Rigg avoided having all three summer months record 100 mm+ of rain, (July only had 99.0 mm and August had 97.8 mm and surprisingly so did Shap, as only 88.6 mm was recorded there in July!), but here at Maulds Meaburn all three months did go over the 100 mm mark for a final total of 403.4 mm.
Other figures from local sites being: Shap 484.4 mm, Warcop 363.2 mm and Blencathra 532.4 mm.
For comparison, 1995 provided both Newton Riggs warmest (15.7c) and driest (67.4 mm) summers, marginally beating 1976 into second on both counts.
So, as with the thunder storm of 28th June this year that lasted just over one hour, one such event can provide virtually 50% of the driest summer’s total rainfall!
The other dominant feature of this summer as been the lack of sunshine and both June and July were especially dull.
Unfortunately sunshine is no longer recorded at Newton Rigg (Cumbria) but the Met’ Office have made some ‘best estimates’ for myself, based on gridded data and they are: June 102 hours - July 95 hours and August 134 hours.
This is only 70.7% of average seasonal sunshine and that figure of 95 hours in July is what we would expect in March.
So whilst perceptions of the weather aren’t always supported by the facts of a whole month or season, with summer 2012 we can safely assert that it has been wet, cool, dull and utterly miserable.
Darren Rogers - he who submits the most interesting posts, AKA Mr Data
Maulds Meaburn

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Re: SUMMER REPORT

Post by Admin1 » Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:06 am

Reads well to me - well done !!

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darrog
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Re: SUMMER REPORT

Post by darrog » Mon Jul 15, 2013 9:37 am

There is now a problem with this report.
At the time I did make various enq's with the Met'O about the wettest summer and gave them some years to check (between 1912 - 1958) as they had only published data from 1961.
The years that I asked them to check were wet ones, but I discounted a few years as other local sites in Penrith did not come near beating the totals that we were looking at.

However, I now have full data back to 1914 and very much to my dismay and somewhat surprise the ranking of wettest summers is:

1.) 1930 with 440.0 mm
2.) 1928 with 370.0 mm
3.) 2004 with 369.0 mm
4.) 1927 with 367.0 mm
5.) 2007 with 361.0 mm
6.) 2012 with 354.2 mm
7.) 1912 with 347.5 mm

But consider that at Appleby between 1891 and 2012, 1930 would only rank as the 22nd wettest summer.
Appleby's top 5 are:

1.) 1928 with 460.5 mm
2.) 1912 with 412.1 mm
3.) 1927 with 368.0 mm
4.) 1891 with 365.0 mm
5.) 1931 with 350.0 mm

so clearly 1927 and 1928 were uniformly wet, but the disparity between the two for 1930 is somewhat amazing
(Appleby only had 277.7 mm) - how can the other years fall into line but this one be so wide of the mark?
Localised thunderstorms maybe, but the difference seems too big for comfort.

However, I felt that the record should be put right and I can only quote the figures given and apologise for my mistake.
Darren Rogers - he who submits the most interesting posts, AKA Mr Data
Maulds Meaburn

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